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YEAR 4 · PROBABILITY · 12 MIN

Repeating chance trials

Run and record a chance experiment using the same rules each time.

In this lesson

Before you start
  • Tallying and counting
  • Possible outcomes
01 / LEARN

Understand the idea.

Set up a repeatable trial

A trial is one repetition of a chance experiment: one coin toss or one draw from a bag. Decide the procedure and the number of trials before starting, so everyone knows what counts as one result.

For repeated bag draws with unchanged contents, return the drawn ball and mix after recording its colour. This resets the collection for the next trial. Keeping it out would change the experiment’s conditions.

Record what actually happens

Record every outcome once, either in trial order or with a tally for each outcome. Count unexpected results too. A record describes what actually happened, so changing it to match a prediction would make it unreliable.

For ten tosses showing only heads or tails, the two counts must add to ten. They need not be five each: a fair setup gives equal chances, while the results of a short experiment can vary.

Practice results: ten fair-coin tosses
Trial12345678910
ResultHTHHTTHTHH
02 / WORKED EXAMPLES

See the method in action.

EXAMPLE 01

Count a supplied record

Use the supplied ten-toss record to count heads and tails.

Practice results: ten fair-coin tosses
Trial12345678910
ResultHTHHTTHTHH

Worked solution

  1. 1

    Find all the heads in the record.

    Trials 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10

    Reading each entry in order prevents a result from being missed or counted twice.

  2. 2

    Count each outcome.

    6 heads,4 tails

    Six entries are H; the other four entries are T.

  3. 3

    Check against the number of trials.

    6+4=10

    All ten recorded outcomes are accounted for, even though the counts are unequal.

Answer

6 heads and 4 tails.

EXAMPLE 02

A bag experiment

Write a rule for ten draws that keep the same bag contents each time.

Worked solution

  1. 1

    Draw one equal-sized ball without looking.

    A well-mixed, unseen draw avoids choosing a colour deliberately.

  2. 2

    Record the colour once.

    Each draw contributes exactly one outcome to the ten-trial record.

  3. 3

    Return the ball and mix the bag.

    Replacement restores the original contents, and mixing prepares the next random draw.

  4. 4

    Repeat until ten draws have been recorded.

    Using the same draw, record, replace and mix rule keeps the conditions the same for every trial.

Answer

Replace and mix after every recorded draw.

03 / YOUR TURN

Try it yourself.

Check your understanding

Twenty trials produced eight red outcomes. If red and blue were the only options, how many were blue?

Show answer & reasoning

12.

Red and blue account for every trial, so subtract the 8 red outcomes from 20: 20−8=12 blue outcomes. The check 8+12=20 accounts for all trials.

Keep practising

6 worksheet questions · 10 marks

Read the questions online
  1. In a coin experiment, what could count as one trial?
    1 mark
  2. Count heads in H, T, H, T, T, H, H, T.
    1 mark
  3. Eight trials give three red results and only red/blue outcomes. How many results are blue?
    1 mark
  4. Why should a counter be replaced in every trial if the aim is to keep bag contents unchanged?
    2 marks
  5. A learner tosses a coin ten times but records only nine results. What should the learner do?
    2 marks
  6. Plan a twelve-trial bag experiment. State the setup, trial rule and recording method.
    3 marks
Read the worked solutions

Equivalent correct methods earn the corresponding marks. Include units where asked.

  1. In a coin experiment, what could count as one trial?
    1 mark

    Each repeat has one recorded outcome.

    One toss of the coin.
  2. Count heads in H, T, H, T, T, H, H, T.
    1 mark

    Heads occur in positions 1, 3, 6 and 7.

    4 heads.
  3. Eight trials give three red results and only red/blue outcomes. How many results are blue?
    1 mark

    8−3=5.

    5.
  4. Why should a counter be replaced in every trial if the aim is to keep bag contents unchanged?
    2 marks

    Without it, later trials use different contents.

    Replacement restores the starting collection.
  5. A learner tosses a coin ten times but records only nine results. What should the learner do?
    2 marks

    Do not invent an outcome to fill the gap.

    Check the record and report the missing result honestly; repeat the planned experiment if necessary.
  6. Plan a twelve-trial bag experiment. State the setup, trial rule and recording method.
    3 marks

    Other clear fair setups are valid when the same rule is followed.

    For example: use 2 red and 2 blue equal counters, draw without looking, record colour, replace and mix, repeat 12 times in a tally table.
Checking saved progress…
Curriculum reference & lesson scope

Australian Curriculum v9 / SA Curriculum Mathematics 2026

Ordering likelihood; independent/dependent events; repeated trials; comparing variation.

Official curriculum source ↗

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